$75M target · 40 initial checks × $1M · 2-and-20 · 1% GP commit · 10-year life. Move the levers that matter and watch net TVPI recompute against the real 2026 pre-seed power law. Defaults match the delivered base case in the workbook exactly.
Office of Investments — Private Markets, Whitmore University Endowment
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The Levers
Bear
Base
Bull
Seed → Series A graduation20%
The brutal filter. 2026 reality: 15–20% for recent cohorts (Carta/Crunchbase).
10%35%
Total loss ratio (names → zero)52%
Pre-seed: ~50–55% (USV 40–43% at seed; earlier stage runs higher).
40%65%
Top-winner gross multiple60×
Fund-returner class. 50–100×+ on entry $ (Hustle Fund / Dealroom 2026).
15×150×
Reserve multiple on winners2.0×
Follow-on concentration into graduated names (× initial check).
0×4×
Initial check size$1.0M
At fixed $40M initial budget, larger checks = fewer names.
$0.75M$2.0M
Pre-seed post-money (entry)$5.5M
Median $4–6M post (2026). Lower = more ownership per dollar.
$4M$8M
The Outcome
Net TVPI to LP
1.45×
Below the 3.0× bogey
Gross TVPI (on committed)1.67×
Net MOIC (on invested)2.49×
Terminal net DPI1.45×
Initial names funded40
Expected exit-winners0.51
Total capital deployed$43.7M
Effective loss ratio (<1× names)95%
Where the 40 names land
LossStalled pre-seedSeed, no ASeries ASeries BWinner
How to read this. Net TVPI is what the LP keeps after all fees and 20% carry, per dollar committed. The base case lands 1.45× — a real fund, but well below an endowment's 3.0× pre-seed bogey. The whole return lives in the right tail: at base assumptions, ~0.5 of 40 names becomes a genuine fund-returner. Push graduation, the winner multiple, and reserves toward the bull edge and the fund clears 3×; hold them at market medians and it does not. Grounded to verified 2026 sources; matches the workbook exactly on the delivered scenarios.