A lower-middle-market HVAC acquisition, worked to the number

Private equity, lower middle market. We're evaluating the acquisition of Trident Mechanical Services (fictional target, real discipline): commercial HVAC service and installation, Southeast US, $118M revenue, $16.8M adjusted EBITDA, founder retiring, asking 7.2x. Roughly 60 percent of EBITDA is recurring service contracts; the rest is project work. We'd put 45 percent equity against debt at today's rates.

Build me the deal book: quality-of-earnings red flags to chase in their adjustments — what does "adjusted" hide in a business like this; the value-creation plan — pricing, route density, tuck-ins, back-office — with what each lever is realistically worth; the 100-day plan from close; and a returns model I can actually play with — entry multiple, leverage, growth, exit multiple as levers, showing IRR and MOIC as they move, because my partners argue about assumptions and I want to settle it live in the room. Then the IC memo: do we bid 7.2, bid lower, or walk.