Returns Simulator · Live
Trident Mechanical Services
Commercial HVAC Service & Install · Southeast US · 5-Year Hold LBO
Prepared for the Investment Committee
Harrowgate Capital Partners
In-browser · nothing sent anywhere
The Levers
Entry multiple
× seller $16.8M adj. EBITDA
6.50
x
=
7.5
x on ours
5.5x
8.0x
Recommended bid 6.5x. The 7.2x ask = 8.4x on our defensible $14.5M.
Leverage
debt as % of entry EV
55
%
/
45
% equity
40%
65%
Entry debt
$60.06M
· unitranche @ 9.93% all-in.
EBITDA growth
drives the 5-yr build → exit EBITDA
5.0
%
→
$21.2M
exit
2.0%
10.0%
Prob-weighted build: organic levers + tuck-in arbitrage. 5% underwrite → $21.2M.
Exit multiple
× exit EBITDA at year 5
8.50
x
7.0x
9.5x
8.5x is earned — a bigger, cleaner, more-recurring platform. Downside holds 7.5x.
Hold period
fixed — matches workbook 5-yr formulas
5 yrs
↺ Reset to base case
⤓ Export scenario
The Return
IRR · 5-yr
19.0
%
MOIC^(1/5) − 1 · single entry/exit
MOIC
2.38
x
exit equity ÷ equity in
Entry EV
$109.2M
6.50x × $16.8M
Equity in
$57.17M
sponsor check at close
Exit equity
$136.3M
exit EV − net debt
The two anchors the room argues over
Recommended bid
6.5x seller · 7.5x ours
19.0%
2.38x
$136.3M
The 7.2x ask
7.2x seller · 8.4x ours
15.6%
2.06x
$129.8M
Your scenario
6.50x seller · 7.5x ours
19.0%
2.38x
vs bid: —
Where the equity gain comes from
Total gain
+$79.1M
running self-test…
Year-by-year debt & FCF schedule
Yr
EBITDA
Interest
FCF
Sweep
End debt
Spot-scenario check vs workbook
#
Scenario
Exp IRR
Sim IRR
Exp MOIC
Sim MOIC