Seed Diligence · Interactive Deal Simulator

Rooftop HVAC Controls — stress the deal live

A lens on the unit-economics model. Move the levers that actually move the outcome and watch LTV/CAC, payback, contribution and the forward revenue curve recompute. The venture bar is LTV/CAC > 3× and payback < 18–24 months; drag the deal beneath it and the verdict turns.

Everything computes in your browser. No network calls, no analytics — the numbers you type never leave this machine.
Verdict vs venture bar
CLEARS
on the direct motion alone
LTV / CAC · undiscounted
3.3×
bar > 3.0×
LTV / CAC · discounted
2.5×
conservative > 3.0×
CAC payback
16.3 mo
bar < 18–24 mo

Levers

drag or type
SaaS price · per unit / month $
$49$299
base $149 · deal fact
Monthly logo churn %
0.5%8.0%
base 2.0% → 50-mo life · bear 3.5%
Pilot-to-paid conversionload-bearing %
10%90%
base 40% · scales sales cost per closed building
Buildings closed · per AE / month
0.85.0
base 2.5 · drives sales-labor CAC + the treadmill
Hardware COGS · BOM per unit $
$150$900
base $450 · drives the −29% hardware GM drag
Net revenue retention · annual %
85%140%
base 108% · expansion offsets churn in LTV

Live outputs

base case · direct motion
LTV / CAC · undiscounted clears
3.3×
expansion-adjusted LTV over fully-loaded CAC
LTV / CAC · discounted
2.5×
present-value LTV at the venture discount rate
CAC payback clears
16.3mo
months of SaaS gross profit to recover CAC
Contribution · per building, yr 1
$7,529
hardware (one-time) + 12 mo SaaS gross profit
Fully-loaded CAC
$12,390
sales labor + hardware subsidy
Blended GM · year 1
47%
hardware drags the SaaS multiple
Hardware GM
−29%
the drag · steady-state SaaS 85%

Forward revenue · 12 months

MRR ARR run-rate
today · $38K MRR · 41 bldgs mo 12 · —
The treadmill
Holding 19% MoM to month 12 lands 331 buildings / $306K MRR — but requires closing 58 buildings/mo, or 23 ramped AEs. Growth here is a hiring treadmill, not a flywheel.

How the math is wired · assumptions labeled

Agrees with the model of record. On base inputs this returns LTV/CAC 3.3× undiscounted, 2.5× discounted, payback 16.3 mo, contribution $7,529/building — identical to the workbook.
Units per building = 6 (model basis, rounded from the derived 6.2). Source: MRR/price reconciliation; LBNL reference building.
CAC = sales labor + hardware subsidy. Labor = loaded AE cost ($324K) ÷ buildings closed/AE/yr, scaled by 40% ÷ conversion. Subsidy = the negative hardware gross profit per building.
Hardware = $900 kit − BOM − $675 install − $40 logistics, per unit. Source: LBNL Jul-2025 (install ≈ 1.5× materials).
LTV = SaaS GP/building/mo × (1/churn) × NRR. Discounted LTV = LTV ÷ (1 + rate × life/12/2), a conservative single-factor PV over average life.
SaaS gross margin 85%, discount rate 15% held fixed here as diligence assumptions. Source: mid-market SaaS norm (Optifai); early-stage venture discount.
Conversion 40% is the load-bearing assumption. Modeled as a sales-cost multiplier: fewer converting pilots means each closed building carries more of the AE cost.
Treadmill holds the reported 19% MoM and replaces churned buildings; AEs needed = new buildings/mo ÷ close rate. Independent of the LTV/CAC verdict.

Scenario export

Current inputs and outputs. Copy the summary or download the JSON, then drop it back into the chat to make it canonical.
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