Padel Club — Feasibility Simulator

Headline verdict — base case

Viable, but thin — and honestly so.

Base delivers $846,278 stabilized revenue at $86,350 EBITDA (10.2% margin) — a below-20% margin, exactly the "4-court trap." Break-even sits near 28% utilization / $80 blended rate. Upside is real; the structural fix is more courts.

The levers

Start from a scenario, then move any lever. Everything to the right recomputes live.

Blended court utilization biggest swing

30%

24%50%

Share of the 22,464 annual court-hours that sell. Drives peak & off-peak hours together.

Peak court rate

$88

$80$115

Peak $/court-hour (4–11pm & weekends). Off-peak follows at 0.625× — $55/hr at this setting.

Café contribution secondary

0%15%

Net contribution as % of court+coaching revenue — after COGS and café labor. Margin, not the main event.

Total buildout (CapEx) returns, not EBITDA

$1.66M

$1.42M$1.95M

Drives depreciation, equity payback and return-on-capital. Does not change operating EBITDA.

Engine: revenue is built peak + off-peak separately (13,104 peak hrs, 9,360 off-peak hrs), lifted 1.30× for coaching and 1.17× for pro-shop/café/events, less the stabilized cost base of $759,928. Ties to Priya's locked workbook to the dollar.

Stabilized economics — Year 3

The steady-state year, once the club has ramped to its stabilized utilization.

Above break-even — the club clears its cost base.

Stabilized EBITDA

$86,350

10.2% EBITDA margin

Stabilized revenue

$846,278

Court + coaching + ancillary

Break-even

Cleared

Margin of safety above the line

Equity payback

~7 yr

Full recovery of invested equity

Return on capital (Yr3)

−3.1%

Yr3 EBIT ÷ CapEx — buildout-heavy

Cumulative cash — first 36 months

trough ≈ −$409k

Cumulative cash Below zero (working-capital cushion) Break-even line

How your scenario sits against the locked band

The spread is the story: conservative loses money, base is thin-but-alive, only optimistic posts healthy margins.

Scenario	Blended util	Peak rate	CapEx	Stabilized rev	EBITDA	Margin

A lens on the model, not the model itself. Figures are stabilized (Year 3) unless noted; returns are indicative. The full workbook and dossier carry the ramp, debt service and risk detail. Recompute is exact to the locked assumptions.